Copper vs Crude Oil
The two commodities the real economy depends on most directly: the one that carries electricity, and the one still being burned instead of it. Both cyclical, but not on the same cycle — copper follows what gets built, oil follows what gets consumed.
Over the period both series share, Copper comes out ahead at +7.9% a year.
| Asset | Total return | Annualised | Volatility | Largest drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | +631.8% | +7.9% a year | 25.8% | −63.8% (February 2009) |
| Crude Oil | +209.4% | +4.4% a year | 38.3% | −86.0% (May 2020) |
Figures calculated on 26/10/2026 from monthly closing prices. Past performance is no guide to future performance.
The investment cycle against the consumption cycle
Copper demand comes from building sites, electrical grids, factories and equipment. It therefore depends on investment decisions, taken months or years ahead and stopped dead when credit tightens. Copper rises and falls with the appetite to build.
Oil demand comes from transport, heating and chemicals. It is far steadier year to year — people travel about as much — but its supply is managed: OPEC and its allies adjust production to defend a price. Oil’s large moves come from supply more often than from demand, the reverse of copper.
What the curve does not measure the same way
Both series are chains of futures, but the cost of rolling them is nothing alike. On copper, which stores easily in a warehouse, the spread between expiries stays small. On oil, whose storage is costly and limited, it is often large and always against whoever is rolling. The same curve cannot be read with equal confidence on both sides.
A deeper trend runs through this comparison: electrification raises copper requirements while eventually reducing the need for fuel. It plays out over decades, though, and the chart shows only what has already happened — not what the projections announce.
Frequently asked questions
Why does oil move more than copper?
Because its supply is both concentrated and politically managed, and its short-term demand is inelastic: it takes an enormous price move before people travel less.
Is copper a good barometer of the economy?
That is its reputation, and it is deserved for the construction cycle. It has become harder to read since China came to account for most of world demand: copper now diagnoses Chinese activity above all.
Are the two prices linked?
Indirectly: mining and refining copper consumes a lot of energy, so persistently expensive oil raises copper’s cost of production. The link exists, but it is slow and far weaker than their shared dependence on the world cycle.