Gold vs S&P 500 TR
A metal that produces nothing against five hundred companies distributing their profits. The comparison only makes sense against the total-return version of the S&P 500: setting gold against an index stripped of its dividends would hobble one of the two contestants.
Over the period both series share, S&P 500 TR comes out ahead at +10.8% a year.
| Asset | Total return | Annualised | Volatility | Largest drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (Ounce) | +882.2% | +6.4% a year | 14.1% | −40.7% (December 2015) |
| S&P 500 TR | ×44.3 | +10.8% a year | 15.5% | −53.1% (March 2009) |
Figures calculated on 26/10/2026 from monthly closing prices. Past performance is no guide to future performance.
Why the total-return version, and not the usual index
Gold pays nothing: its performance is entirely contained in its price. Equities pay twice over — through the share price and through the dividend. A price index shows only the first, and comparing it with gold would cost equities a major part of their long-run return.
The S&P 500 TR, with dividends reinvested, puts the two on equal terms. It is the only honest way to ask what one would have returned rather than the other.
Two roles, not two rivals
Gold is traditionally held for what it does when everything else goes wrong: it carries no company risk, no balance sheet, no counterparty. It goes whole decades without making progress, then reprices sharply in periods of monetary distrust.
Equities pay for productive risk-taking, with deep falls and recoveries. Putting the two curves side by side over forty years shows less a winner than an alternation: gold’s great phases are rarely equities’.
Frequently asked questions
What is a TR index?
Total return: dividends paid are assumed to be reinvested in the index on the day they go ex-dividend.
Does the comparison account for inflation?
No. Both curves are in current euros or dollars. Over several decades, inflation changes how both should be read.